ES Oct 26 Short

Stop @ 122950

ESZ1 Oct 26

ESZ1 Current Market Structure

ESZ1 Oct 25 Short

ESZ1 October 25 Roadmap

ESZ1 October 24 Long

ESZ1 October 24 Levels

SP's = single prints (buying/selling tail)

Beautiful Short

Perfect Set-up

ESZ1 October 20th

Pre October 20th Analysis

Tomorrow's bias will be based on which side of the low volume (121600 - 121200) we begin trading on. This is a key area right in between the 200 and 50 daily ema's.

ESZ1 October 19

ESZ1 October 18 Long Trade

ESZ1 Post October 17

Will the daily 50 ema (magenta) be support or will we blow through it and continue the longer term downtrend?

ESZ1 October 14 Long Trade

Post October 13 Analysis

ESZ1 sold off from yesterday’s high of 121600 during the ETH session. Buyers came in at Monday’s value area high of 118575 where we also saw confluence with the 50 daily ema. Whether or not the bulls can sustain this rally and get above Wednesday's point of control of 120750 during tomorrow’s session will be important. Significant overhead resistance still lies at the 200 daily ema of ~123175.

Post October 11 Analysis

Pretty quiet day as we digested the gains of yesterday’s rally. We auctioned horizontally just above the daily 50 ema, holding above yesterday’s POC. Today was also an NR7 day, meaning that today’s range was the narrowest in the last 7 days. I would consider this to be bullish, however given the gains of the past week, the ESZ1 is quite extended to the upside. Another chart that needs to be taken seriously is the daily 50 ema on the EUR/USD spot market. It lies ~0.20 euros overhead, and I would watch for a reaction from the bears if it’s eventually hit. The move of EUR/USD to its 50 ema would equate to a move of the ESZ1 contract near its daily 200 ema which is also a significant area of resistance.

Die Eisen Frau, Merkel: Post October 10 Analysis

The ESZ1 rallied in the first couple of hours of the RTH session when Germany and France pledged to stem the Eurozone debt crisis. We then auctioned horizontally at the daily 50 ema, forming a well-defined volume profile bell curve which was then broken to the downside. However, we found buyers around the 117800 price level who blasted us to the upside through the previously broken bell curve, completely overcoming any selling pressure. The ESZ1 closed above its daily 50 ema which is very bullish. The 200 daily ema lies above at ~122080 which should be the next significant area of resistance.

Pre October 10 Analysis

Last Friday, the ESZ1 contract closed a doji candle just outside of the upper range of its daily down channel (blue). It also closed below the 50EMA (magenta), and also found support at the 5EMA (blue). It will be interesting to see if the bulls can push us above significant overhead supply at ~118000, or if the bears can continue the longer term downtrend by taking us below ~114000 this week. The horizontal green and red lines are significant support and resistance respectively.

10/6 Market Profile Levels:

UVA: 116075

POC: 115550

LVA: 114900

October 6 ESZ1 Analysis

Thursday, price auctioned higher on the ESZ1 contract. Buyers stepped in at the previous day’s POC right at the RTH session’s open which started an intraday uptrend. We closed near the high of the day, which was the third straight day of higher closes from the 10/4 swing low of 106800. Although the ES closed above its daily 20EMA, the 50EMA lies right above at ~108050. Today’s high also overshot a declining channel which starts on 9/20, containing two swing highs and lows. This should be taken into consideration when trading on Friday, October 7^th. I’m still not convinced by the bulls that this longer-term downtrend is over.

ESZ1 10/7 Levels:

VAH: 115525

POC: 114925

VAL: 114100

H: 116050

L: 112900

O: 113500

C: 115800

50EMA: 118050

1140 – 1130 Important support for bulls 

October 6th ES levels

VAH = Value Area High
POC = Point of Control
VAL = Value Area Low
*October 5th levels

October 4th ES Long Trade